The Oval Office rocked the world on Friday as the US-Ukraine deal fell apart on live TV. Tempers ran high. Videos went viral. X posts exploded. With so many unknowns, it is difficult to fully ascertain what each party’s motivations were at Friday’s fracas in the White House. There are some facts, however, that can guide us through a proper breakdown of the incident. First, Trump, Vance, and Zelensky all came out looking bad. Second, Europe and the rest of NATO is more galvanized. Third, Europe acknowledged that the US is necessary for ending the war. Fourth, Ukraine cannot win the war unless NATO puts boots on the ground. With the benefit of a full weekend of geopolitical developments after Friday’s Oval Office meeting, let’s dive into the strategies employed by each party in the conflict.
Trump
Trump leans heavily into his ‘peacemaker’ archetype. Before he took office, he negotiated a ceasefire in the Middle East. In fact, Trump extended that ceasefire by a further 50 days this weekend. Ever the dealmaker, the precious minerals deal was a businessman’s way of binding the US and Ukraine into peace talks. Trump made ill-advised comments the previous week, calling Zelensky a dictator. A stroke too far, it was yet part of a transparent plan that Trump has put in place since his election. Trump wants to even the playing field in America’s relationship with both sides in order to seize control of the peace talks. If the US were seen as a Ukraine shill by Russia, Putin would have no reason to come to the table. American aid forces Zelensky to already be there even if he perhaps does not realize that fact. Trump’s meetings with other leaders last week made clear that he is not, in fact, siding with Putin. He is evidently looking to mediate a deal.
Zelensky and his suit
Trump gave Zelensky a wide berth on Friday. He greeted Zelensky with a sarcastic comment about his attire. However, after a reporter questioned Zelensky about not wearing a suit, Trump jumped to his defence. He admonished the reporter for the question and backed Zelensky. Trump’s views were already clear. His defence of Zelensky was an even clearer defense of the deal. Trump’s big fault, however, was losing his temper. Once Vance and Zelensky started arguing towards the end of the press conference, Trump lost control. He came down on Zelensky hard.
Vance
JD Vance is unlike any Vice President in recent history. He was not chosen to pad out the Trump base in the election. Rather he is Trump’s appointed successor. Known for his confrontational communication style, Vance is the aggressive guard dog of the White House. In an unprecedentedly friendly dynamic between President and Vice President, Trump appears to give Vance a lot of latitude to lay the groundwork for a 2028 campaign with near-constant media appearances.
Ever the bulldog
Vance’s communications may lack nuance, however. He was factually correct in his criticisms of Obama and Biden’s past approach to Ukraine. He perhaps misread Zelensky’s posture leading up to his contribution, though. It directly led to the fracas. Armed with being right, Vance stormed into the argument with the conviction of a parent grounding an unruly child. Effective, perhaps, but certainly not a good look. Vance must develop more subtlety ahead of a future Presidential run.
Zelensky
Zelensky entered the meeting with the demeanor of a man looking to win a war, not to gain peace at all costs. Perhaps Trump’s earlier jibe irritated him. Perhaps Zelensky is used to getting whatever he asked for from the White House. Either way, Trump initially worked hard to keep the tone positive and peace-focused. Zelensky’s opening statements lambasted Putin, prodding the US to be less neutral. When he tried to position the US and Europe as equal partners in aid, he downplayed his reliance on Trump and his proposed deal. With a smile, Trump pushed back and quickly moved on.
Spoiling for a fight
Zelensky was becoming increasingly agitated for about 15 minutes before the fracas. Instead of recognizing this, Vance railed against Obama and Biden, and Zelensky took that as bait. Throughout the press conference, Zelensky made a few things clear. First, he was unwilling to acknowledge that peace cannot be achieved with the US. Second, Zelensky treated Trump like Biden, expecting to dominate the press conference on his terms as he has before. Third, he focused on achieving victory, not on achieving peace. Zelensky takes NATO’s support for granted, claiming that a bit more aid will defeat Russia. The only way Ukraine can possibly beat Russia is for NATO to provide human aid. In other words, this regional conflict needs to be upgraded to World War III. If that happens, of course, it will ultimately involve every nuclear power in the world. A high price to pay to maintain pre-2022 borders.
The winner?
Both sides lost ground on Friday, yet the US won the exchange. Europe galvanized around Ukraine, easing the pressure on the US to do so. Meanwhile, leaders like Starmer acknowledged that the US is still necessary for ending the war. Putin, obviously, gained ground in the short-term from the PR fallout. However, he is now facing a more galvanized Europe as a result. Besides, Zelensky is already working to regain the deal that fell apart on Friday.
Long term win for Trump
The most likely consequence is that Putin will be open to negotiations, insisting that Trump be the mediator. Trump will then hold all the cards. He will bind Ukraine into a refreshed precious earth deal, favoring the US slightly more than the original agreement. Ceasefire will come within weeks; an end of the war by the end of the year. Trump will claim to be a historic peacemaker. Success will help his efforts in the Middle East and will boost the GOP platform going into the midterms. Meanwhile Zelensky will likely face the plight of Churchill in the first Ukrainian elections after the war.
