As Donald Trump makes big, bold moves towards peace, Europe is preparing for war. Starmer, Zelensky, and other leaders have, in their own way, publicly acknowledged that any move forward without the US will lead to a full Russian takeover of Ukraine. Still, Europe is making big, bold moves towards war, and there’s no way it can credibly be a bluff. Not only has Europe become weak in recent years, it has also developed a pattern of exacerbating conflicts. Its pusillanimous approach to Putin and a wholly disunited front with regard to the Middle East have rendered any threat of war – or peace – unconvincing without US support.
The Art of War
Grand strategist, Sun Tzu, laid out five factors of war in his manual, The Art of War. A general with an advantage in three or more will be sure to win in battle. With any less, that general should avoid engaging in war at all costs. These conditions are Moral Law, Heaven, Earth, The Commander, and Method and Discipline. By evaluating these five factors – in terms of both military and political strategy – we can predict with some time-tested accuracy who would likely win World War III.
Moral Law
Moral Law is unwavering commitment to the cause. Ukraine is fully committed to keeping all pre-2022 borders. For the country and its population, this war is a matter of life and death. Russia must be defeated at all costs. For European powers, apathy is prevalent below highest leadership. European involvement would dilute the Moral Law on the pro-Ukraine side.
Escalation
In Russia, commitment is a little less convincing. While outsiders don’t tend to get the full picture of internal feeling in Russia, there have been reports of dissent in the country since 2022. However, if European forces join Ukraine, this would certainly galvanize and unite Russians behind their leader. Rather than being the aggressor, Russia would become – yet again – a target of Western powers. Putin would become Churchill in the eyes of his people. European involvement would also risk galvanizing other powers like China and what is left of Iran and its proxies. This would conflate the Ukrainian war with the conflict in the Middle East. China and North Korea may also get involved. Europe would be surrounded by Asia, most of the Middle East, and Africa (given the overwhelming Chinese influence). Most of these countries would be fully galvanized against the West.
Brokering peace
Meanwhile, the US is fully committed to brokering peace. The Trump Administration’s commitment to notching a major foreign policy win for domestic gain easily outweighs the commitment of any other party, except perhaps Ukraine. Therefore in a continued war, Ukraine maintains the advantage but it shifts to Russia if European forces get involved. The US, however, is more committed to peace than either side is to an escalated war.
Heaven
Heaven is the climate of war. On the political level, Europe is supportive of the war while the US is not. A united Ukraine and Europe force would have the advantage of political climate over Russia. Russia, after all, is taking Trump’s invitation to peace talks as a means to save face and exit the war. Any involvement of Russia’s allies would come only if Europe joined forces against Russia. It would be an Afro-Asian resistance against former colonial powers. As it stands, there is not a political climate for those powers to get involved.
Peace as the goal
The US holds the balance of power, hence they are perfectly placed to broker peace. Its insistence on securing a lasting peace deal is more popular than Europe’s support for a war. Most critically, European countries must at least promote peace on some level as a recognized ‘best outcome’. After all, every government will face the electorate again by the end of the decade.
Europe, therefore, may have an immediate advantage in an escalated war. The US has a larger, more convincing advantage in brokering peace.
Earth
Earth relates to the environment and capabilities of each force. Topographically, the Carpathian Mountains provide natural cover to Ukraine’s neighbors in a war while NATO provides military cover. In fact, it’s this topography which makes Ukraine a worthwhile conquest to Russia.
Going nuclear
In terms of capabilities, Russia has an obvious advantage. Putin has already threatened the use of nuclear weapons in this war. While the UK and France have some nuclear capabilities, they pale in comparison to Russia. Ukraine famously has no nuclear weapons. The US has a comparable but higher quality arsenal than Putin. However, as peace brokers, the US will not consider deploying any military against Russia, let alone nuclear weapons.
Russia dominates
Overall, Russia has the clear advantage. Nuclear weapons outweigh any geographical advantages. However, yet again, the US will wield its larger power to force peace. Russia knows that a US-led NATO would be more powerful than Russia on its own. Ukraine is beginning to understand its complete reliance on the US. Bigger army diplomacy will help the US to bring both sides to the table without escalating the war.
The Commander
The Commander’s strength and ability to command his army is critical in a war. Without the US, NATO and its structures will not be introduced. With Russia’s veto, the UN cannot deploy its structures. The EU does not have a unified army. Ukraine would be supported by a loose coalition of forces with, presumably, one emerging leader. No European leader has any war experience. Zelensky, three years into a war, is showing that he has yet to prove himself beyond effective messaging. A disciplined commander would not have blown off the US deal last Friday, for example. The pro-Ukraine forces would have no unifying commander in this war.
Experience
On the other hand, Putin does have a lot of military experience. After three decades leading Russia, he has commanded several successful military conquests. If other powers joined Russia in the war, they would naturally coalesce around Russia in the fight against the West. The alliance would be quite different to Europe’s moves of supposed necessity.
Yet again, the US, with its supportive cabinet and unified government, is fully behind Trump’s designs for peace. An escalated war would advantage Russia. The US brokering for peace would trump even Russia’s ability to wage war.
Method & Discipline
Method and Discipline relates to the organization of the forces in war. Rumors of dissent aside, Russia has a clear command structure and a reasonably disciplined military force. Any allied forces would coalesce around Russia as the leader of the resistance, providing reasonably strong structural organization.
Ukraine is conscripting men and attempting to lower the conscription age to 16. This necessarily lowers the experience – and skill – of its military. Additionally, European armies have little-to-no recent war experience and would be disparate forces. The pro-Ukraine side would necessarily lack the organization needed to overcome the Russian force.
The disciplined stick
Meanwhile, the US is unequivocal in ending the war. Trump’s stick approach to Zelensky since last Friday shows that he will go out of his way to achieve his goals. So far, this has included the withdrawal of military aid and intelligence sharing to force Zelensky’s hand. With a strong cabinet and a unified government, Trump has no obstacles within his own ranks.
Russia v Peace
If the war escalates, Russia has three advantages: Earth, The Commander, and Method and Discipline. This means that they would win an escalated war if there were no major change to the current calculus. A shift in favor of war within the US, for example, could get NATO officially involved. This would swing the balance significantly.
Meanwhile, the US, acting as peace brokers, have an advantage in all five factors over an escalated war. The US can therefore wield its power against Ukraine and Europe to ensure peace. Peace is a preferable option for all.
Russia could choose either path. An escalated war will likely change the calculus if it became a reality. The safer option, therefore, is to stand with the US in seeking peace. Ukraine must choose peace or face massive losses. There is no outcome where pre-2022 borders are likely, but an escalated war could risk an even larger downside. Europe’s involvement in World War III would go as poorly as it did at the start of World War II. Notably, the calculus changed significantly after the US joined the Allies in 1941. It would be a mistake to think the US administration would ever support the European war effort now.
