After Conor McGregor’s appearance in the White House last week, speculation abounds about who will become Ireland’s next President. Current office-holder, Michael D Higgins, is term-limited and will therefore leave Áras an Uachtaráin this November. No candidate has formally announced their candidacy, but already there are frontrunners for election.
The role of President
It is important to understand exactly what the Irish President is, what it can do, and what it cannot do. Created by Eamon de Valera to essentially be a retirement plan for elderly politicians, only two past Presidents have continued a career after holding the office. The President has limited powers, most of which is on the advice of the Taoiseach, the Government, or the Dáil. In particular, the appointment of the Taoiseach, the Government, and judges comes with no discretion. The President’s only discretion relates to signing bills into law, however there is no veto power. If the President considers a bill to be unconstitutional, he will convene a Council of State (consisting mostly of the current and past Taoisigh) for advice. With their consent, he may refer the bill to the Supreme Court. Should a President refuse to sign a bill, the Council of State will sign it, rendering the refusal irrelevant.
President as Advocate
The only real power a President has is soft-power advocacy. The two Anglican Presidents (Hyde and Childers) used their office to promote ecumenism. Robinson, the first female President, promoted feminist issues. McAleese, a Northern-born President during the Peace Process, helped to mend the post-Troubles tensions. Higgins, on the other hand, has used the office to further his lifelong commitment to pushing progressive politics. Most notably, he has brought Ireland closer to countries like Iran and Cuba and further from the United States. In choosing its next President, therefore, Irish voters should focus on what soft power they want exercised in the office for the next seven years, rather than on any policy platform. With this in mind, we can analyze some likely candidates.
Mairead McGuinness
A former broadcast and journalist, McGuinness had a long career in the European Union. She sat in the EU Parliament for 16 years, becoming Vice President and First Vice President during that term. In 2020, she became an EU Commissioner, a role she held until last November. A previous contender for the Fine Gael nomination for President in 2011, she is likely to run again this year. Her absence from Irish politics has helped her to stay above the fray, with few known skeletons in her proverbial closet. As President, she would likely champion the ever increasing trend towards EU collaboration.
Frances Black
A modern-day Renaissance woman, Black was an award-winning singer, a charity founder (RISE), and an addiction counsellor before entering politics in 2016. In her ninth year as an Independent Senator, Black is best known for tabling the Occupied Territories Bill in 2018. After six years, the Government shelved her attempt to legislate Boycott, Divest, and Santion into Irish law in January. Black is touted to unite all left-wing parties behind her, significantly strengthening her nomination. Her strong support for Palestine in the Middle East will make her a favorite, given Ireland’s keen focus on the Palestinian cause. As President, she will certainly advocate for the State of Palestine in an even more concerted way than Higgins has up to this point.
Bertie Ahern
Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has re-entered the public consciousness in recent years with a pretty obvious play to become Ireland’s next President. Previously banned from Fianna Fáil by Micheál Martin after he left politics in disgrace, he re-joined the party in 2023. Ahern is unlikely to receive a nomination to become President and his favorability ratings are low for a former Taoiseach. As President, he would likely refocus Ireland on old school governance and away from the ‘Students’ Union’ politics that has crept in over the last decade.
Michael McDowell
Another ‘elder statesman’ type, McDowell was Táinaiste to Ahern towards the end of their respective tenures in the Dáil. As a former Attorney General and Minister for Justice, McDowell’s post-2008 public rehabilitation has been much more successful. He re-entered the Seanad in 2016, having previously sat there in the 1980s before his Dáil career. He was the leader of the Seanad-led opposition to last year’s Family and Care referenda. His skepticism of the Hate Speech Bill also helped to raise his profile. A former leader of the Progressive Democrats – Ireland’s only successful conservative party in recent history – McDowell would be the most likely ‘right-wing’ candidate. As President, he would focus on protecting the Constitution and promoting the rule of law amid rising crime rates.
Conor McGregor
Despite his international renown, McGregor will struggle to obtain a nomination for President. Last year’s civil rape lawsuit by Nikita Hand was a coup de grace on his waning popularity. McGregor is now a pariah in Ireland. It is unlikely that 20 TDs and Senators or four county councils will nominate him, rendering his candidacy moot. His comments on his candidacy thus far have demonstrated a complete misunderstanding of the role of the President. He would be a historic President if elected, however. Given his comments to date, he would likely be in constant battle with both the Government and the Constitution. It is wholly likely that McGregor would be the first impeached President, given his proclivity for “stated misbehavior” under Art 12.10 of the Constitution. During his brief hypothetical Presidency, McGregor would be a strong advocate against unchecked immigration and would push for a strengthened alliance with the Trump administration in the US.
Predictions for President
The most likely outcome for the Presidential election would be party nominations from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the united left movement, with a handful of smaller Independent candidates. Ultimately, however, it will be a two-horse race between the diplomacy of Mairead McGuinness and the progressiveness of Frances Black. Two things are certain, however: the next President will continue to have a limited role in Irish politics, and it will not be Conor McGregor.
