As Notre Dame de Paris was re-presented to the world in all its recovered grandeur, so too was Donald Trump. After nearly half a decade of being burnt out and mostly non-functional, both the Cathedral and the President-Elect returned to dominate the world stage this past weekend. In an unprecedented move, Trump’s appearance in Paris and his meetings with world leaders indicated that Trump has, in effect, taken office several weeks before his inauguration. This is not merely a symptom of Trump’s desire to take office quickly, it is more a response from the world to the dramatic change coming to the White House. Trump is back and everyone knows his strength.
Trump’s Campaign of Strength
Throughout the last four years, Trump and the Republican party have not been subtle about their feelings for Biden. They have continually lambasted the Biden-Harris administration for its weakness and poor policy decisions. The failed pull-out from Afghanistan in 2021, the rise in crime across the country, record-high inflation, and a rapid increase in anti-American international agreements around the world are just some of the receipts Biden’s critics bring to the discussion. That is, of course, to say nothing of two red-hot warzones to Europe’s east and an illegal immigration problem so bad that even Biden himself attempted to campaign from the right of Trump on the issue. As the Republican electoral landslide indicated, most Americans agreed with the weak assessment of Biden. With only one remaining term allowed in office, the pressure is on Trump to contrast himself with the outgoing administration as rapidly as possible.
Biden’s Weakness
This contrast, of course, started during the campaign. The turning point of the election was the six-week period between the first Presidential debate and Biden’s withdrawal from the campaign. Biden referred to Trump as his Vice President and Putin as the President of Ukraine in the same evening. Two days later, Trump emerged defiantly with blood on his ear after surviving an attempt on his life at point-blank range. The contrast was clear.
Kamala’s Crisis
When Kamala Harris entered the fray, the contrast did not change. The obvious differences between the two candidates led to major media outlets refusing to offer their customary endorsement of the Democrat candidate and most world leaders acted with similar caution. Since July, MAGA hat sales have been up even in San Francisco. A sure sign of changing societal impressions if ever there was one.
A Changed World
Trump’s successful re-election in November changed the world. Russia and Ukraine both opened themselves to peace talks after more than two-and-a-half years of stubbornness. Hamas suddenly found a taste for peace and its remaining leadership was evicted from its five-star hotel residences in Qatar. The European Commission concluded that US oil may be preferable to Russian oil. The BRICS countries shelved their plans to unseat the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. Even Justin Trudeau flew from Ottawa to Mar-A-Lago to kiss the ring once Trump started loudly threatening sanctions on Canada last week.
By the time Trump touched down in Paris over the weekend, the leaders of the world were ready and willing to welcome him not as a private citizen who will soon take office, but as the current most powerful man in the world. Of course, Trump leaned in. Between his officious handshakes and his imperious welcome of Zelenskyy into the French Presidential Palace, Trump made sure Macron remembered how the dynamics of their relationship worked. As with most adversarial allied leaders in his first term, Trump is strong and they are weak.
Dealing With Trump
From this situation, three important lessons emerge.
Other countries must make nice with Trump
Firstly, every country needs to tread carefully. The UK shrewdly sent Prince William to meet with Trump in Paris. His substitution for Keir Starmer or other Labour ministers who have loudly opposed Trump in the past is a key move for opening up a relationship with the Republican president in the absence of Boris Johnson or any other Conservative Prime Minister. Ireland, for example, has made no such move. Absent entirely from Paris, the outgoing Taoiseach tacitly endorsed Kamala Harris, his namesake, during the election. As Ireland ventures further into confrontational geopolitical moves, the St. Patrick’s Day diplomacy grows ever more precarious as Trump prepares for office. US allies must realise that Trump’s strength is their strength.
Democrats need to learn
Secondly, the Democrats need to regroup. Trump – or rather, the GOP – won the election in a landslide. With a pre-existing originalist Supreme Court (something which Democrats typically oppose), the Republicans not only won the White House, they maintained the House Majority and regained control of the Senate. Washington DC is a red town again. The onus is on the Democrats to figure out what happened and adjust. The time for picking a 2028 Presidential candidate is now and they need to expect to compete against a successful Trump term.
The GOP needs to be careful
Thirdly, the Republican party itself needs to watch its step. It would be easy for the party to run to the right as fast as possible. This would be a fast track towards a blue wave in the mid-terms. Trump must stick to the script to avoid too much of a snapback. Cracks in the GOP will inevitably emerge as the true conservatives get increasingly irked by the predations of the anti-elitist MAGA movement. There will be genuine conflict between the two factions and it’s imperative the party stays strong. Trump’s strength must become the GOP’s strength if it is to last.
The world acknowledges that Trump brings the US to a new era of strength. It’s down to Trump if that strength will remain after he leaves.
