On the blustery winter morning yesterday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ended an enduring era of Canadian politics. After intense pressure from both inside and outside his party, the so-called Governor of the 51st State of America resigned, making way for a replacement leader to contest the next federal election. The Canadian Liberal government has struggled for months. Trudeau’s resignation is a refusal to turn off the life support machine.
External pressure on Trudeau
Trudeau’s popularity has been in steady decline since the Freedom Convoy of 2022. In response to draconian covid-era restrictions, Canadian truckers formed blockades to protest Trudeau’s policies. A more alert leader may have acknowledged the domestic and international pressure and moderated the policies. Trudeau, on the other hand, brought down the hammer. He ordered banks to freeze accounts linked with the protest and took a class action suit against the protesters. Machiavelli would have been happy with Trudeau’s response – but only because Machiavelli was a Republican who secretly sought the downfall of autocratic rule.
As Trudeau’s popularity fell, Pierre Polievre rose to leadership within the opposition Conservative Party. A charismatic and witty parliamentarian, Polievre has rode the wave of Trudeau’s unpopularity over the last three years. Positioning himself as a common sense populist, Polievre is the natural alternative for Canadians who have grown tired of Trudeau’s ten year tenure.
Most recently, Trudeau has faced pressure from outside of Canada. Upon his victory at the ballot in November, Donald Trump took aim at Ottawa. He threatened 25% tariffs on Canada. Trudeau immediately flew to Mar-a-Lago to change his mind. The result was a weak-looking Prime Minister and an enduring meme about Canada joining the Union.
After years of external pressure on Trudeau, it is unsurprising that the internal cracks started to show.
Victim of the global Trump sweep
In December, Trudeau suffered a major blow. His Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance, Chrystia Freeland, resigned from Cabinet. The two had previously had disagreements and Trudeau sought to demote her within the Cabinet. Apparently seeing the writing on the wall, Freeland distanced herself entirely from Trudeau. She published a devastating resignation letter that barely hid the internal squabbles from the public. Freeland cited, among other things, Trudeau’s disastrous fiscal policy, his poor handling of Trump’s threats, and her own lack of confidence in his leadership abilities.
Additionally, Trudeau’s government relies on the New Democrat Party (NDP) for support through a confidence and supply agreement. In recent months, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has been reticent in supporting the government. Until yesterday, he had not yet withdrawn his party’s support. His looming pension eligibility scheduled for February appears to be the reason. Singh announced plans to support a motion of no confidence in Trudeau “at the earliest opportunity”. With much chagrin, Polievre recently told Dr. Jordan Peterson in an interview last week that the earliest opportunity would likely arise in early March.
Trudeau still enjoys formal support from the NDP as Prime Minister. However, a politician’s affinity for a future pension does not form a mandate to represent the people.
Upon Trudeau’s announcement yesterday, the Governor-General prorogued the Canadian Parliament. It is now suspended until the Liberal leadership race is completed, which will likely be in March. Of course, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will have no reason to swear fealty once his pension is secured.
Canada in the wake of Trudeau
There are three main names touted to take over from Trudeau: Chrystia Freeland, Dominic LeBlanc, and Mélanie Joly. Whoever wins the race will likely enjoy a temporary popularity bump by virtue of not being Trudeau. This phenomenon was observed in both Ireland and the US last year with the respective Harris substitutions going into an election. Much like those transatlantic Harris bumps last year, this is unlikely to last until October, the deadline for Canada’s next federal election.
A shrewd leader would plan a few steps ahead. With Polievre’s ever-rising popularity and Singh’s expiring confidence, the next Prime Minister should run the leadership as a head-start on the federal election. A highly public leadership campaign that distances the candidate from Trudeau will lay the groundwork for a highly contested federal election to be called immediately in March. Riding a wave of positive media attention and taking back the anti-Trudeau center ground, the new leader could take Polievre by surprise. If they can’t stop a Conservative government from taking over, they will at least claw back support the Liberals have lost to the NDP under Trudeau, and potentially some tentative Conservative support too. The objective for the next leader, if they cannot hold on to power, will be to minimize the success of Polievre in government and ensure their return to power at the earliest possible convenience.
Polievre, on the other hand, is already doing the media rounds. Successful in deposing Trudeau, he will spend the next two months battling the Liberal Party for media attention. A media conscious leader – something of a rarity these days – Polievre will seek to control the narrative around the leadership race and brand any replacement as a Trudeau in sheep’s clothing. The most likely outcome of the 2025 election is a Polievre premiership. He has excelled as an Opposition leader, but it is anyone’s guess what he will be like as Prime Minister.
