Of the 100 or so elections that have been held this year around the world, the rise of the conservative is the common thread that binds most of them together. After a year of intensifying unrest around typical ‘right-wing’ issues like immigration and crime, it’s notable that Ireland does not have a party to represent this growing contingent of Irish life. Ireland has always been a country of left-of-centre economics with power concentrated pretty much entirely in the centralised Executive in Dublin. The Progressive Democrats disappeared in 2009. Since then, no party has offered any real resistance to the recent rapid leftward trend in Irish politics.
Renua
After she was expelled from Fine Gael, Lucinda Creighton founded Renua in 2015. Since Creighton was expelled from her party over the abortion issue, many expected Renua to be socially conservative. It was not so. Renua ran primarily on economic policies, like flat tax, and refused to nail down any social conservative positions at all. Since Creighton left politics in 2016, the party lost all relevance. Its recent name change to the ‘Centre Party’ oddly does not reflect its transition to fringe hard-right policies.
Aontú
After the disappointment of Renua, Ireland’s right put its hope in Peadar Tóibín’s Aontú. Like Creighton before him, Toibín was expelled from his party – Sinn Féin – over his views on abortion in 2018. The Abortion Referendum that year led to the birth of a refreshed conservatism in Ireland. Much like many of its leading members, the movement was young and ready to be moulded. When Toibín converted his ‘Cherish All Children’ campaign into a political party the following year, it seemed that the Irish conservative movement had finally arrived.
An unhappy blend
After initial successes on both sides of the border, Aontú has languished in the polls at a consistent 3% since 2021. The pro-life vote in 2018 hit 36%. It is surprising that an ostensibly pro-life party hasn’t grabbed the attention of about 85% of its potential base. Toibín has a particular knack for getting positive media attention. The party’s ground game is impressive given its size and age. But cracks are showing in the party. As an unhappy blend of social conservatives and economic socialists, Aontú has a hard time achieving cohesion within its ranks. Hard-line party stances on issues like housing or the Middle East do not reflect the near-50:50 split on these issues within the membership.
Repeated failures to get any elected representatives in the North mirrors its performance in the Republic. Toibín torpedoed his own campaign for EU Parliament in June. He admitted on air that he would only take his seat until the next General Election. In the Local Elections, the party eked out only 8 seats nationwide. An improvement on its previous three, the fact that they grasped half of their seats on the final count does not bode well for the party’s electoral chances this time round.
Independent Ireland
The newest alternative for conservatives, Independent Ireland, has had a dismal first year in existence. Founded just 12 months ago, it gathered together independents around the country to form a loose coalition. In a late rejection of Parnell’s ‘sit, act, and vote’ pledge which changed parliamentary politics forever, Independent Ireland promised to be the new home for free thinkers nationwide.
The party attracted big names in the EU Parliament election like Ciaran Mullooly and Niall Boylan, two veteran broadcasters with significant name recognition. Mullooly demolished all hope for the party when he refused to join the conservative parliamentary grouping as the party had promised. Mullooly now caucuses with Renew, a centrist grouping with permissive views on everything conservatives oppose, from gender theory to increased immigration. While the party continues to exist in the Dáil and will be contesting this election, the fallout from the Flemish Fiasco has set it on a track towards insignificance.
Other small parties do exist but they don’t hold out much hope for the movement. The National Party – so-named, apparently, by individuals who never studied history or PR – took time away from commemorating Hitler’s birthday recently to have a schism. The Irish Freedom Party achieved its first electoral victory in South Dublin County Council in June. Oddly enough, this Eurosceptic party is run by a man in Brussels who works as a Parliamentary Assistant for an MEP. Needless to say, he’s unlikely to be Taoiseach any time soon.
Conservative on the streets
But Ireland has a growing conservative movement on the streets, particularly around immigration. The existing conservatives now join the disenfranchised Sinn Féin working class. The voters exist, but they have no-one credible to vote for.
There is an opportunity here for a small party to bridge the gap between public and polity. A party willing to campaign from the right will see enormous success in this election. The campaign needs to be populist, focused on day-to-day issues like housing, immigration, and the cost of living crisis. A party with existing infrastructure could make a significant dent and sweep enough seats to be a credible government party by Christmas. Independent candidates can take some seats, but we need an organised party to campaign, too.
