It’s been a busy week in politics around the world. Ireland had an election; Biden gave a sweeping pardon to his son; South Korea briefly enforced martial law; and the French government collapsed. Michel Barnier, best known internationally for being the lead negotiator for the EU during the Brexit talks last decade, was ousted by a coalition of left and right. This story is a fascinating example of how to manage allegiances in politics.

The Rise of the RN

The EU Election in June showed a dramatic rise in popularity for the French Right. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) gained a number of seats and echoed similar shifts to the right in other EU countries. In a bid to quell the momentum, President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election. RN was set to win the election in the first round of voting. In a desperate effort to keep Le Pen from gaining power, the centrists (Ensemble) went into an agreement with the left-wing alliance (Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP)) to withdraw vote spoilers. In other words, in constituencies where the anti-RN vote was split, Ensemble and the NFP would withdraw whichever of their respective candidates polled in third to combine their votes and defeat the RN candidate. It was a shrewd political move by Macron in one sense, but this week it has come back to haunt him.

Barnier Appointed

The election resulted in a hung parliament: the three main alliances (the NFP, Ensemble, and RN) did not have enough seats to have a majority. Macron appointed Barnier as Prime Minister to break the deadlock. Barnier’s Republicans are slightly to the right of Macron’s Ensemble, but only holds 39 seats. Throughout the election, Macron relied entirely on the left-wing alliance. This made the NFP the linchpin in the battle between the centrists and Le Pen.

Macron minimised his downside in the short-term by avoiding an RN majority in the parliament but NFP came out strongest. A coalition with the outgoing government and centrist grouping not only afforded it the balance of power, it widened its base. By teaming up with the centrists, it pushed RN further from the mainstream and brought the NFP closer to it.

NFP’s Shift

As soon as the new government was formed under Barnier, the NFP no longer had any reason to support him or Macron. Macron had given the NFP all the power and it was theirs to wield. The first task Barnier had to do was pass a budget. The NFP had no obligation to back it, particularly given their opposing economics. Obviously the RN would oppose anything Barnier suggested, so it was not difficult for the NFP to take advantage of the situation – again – and oust Barnier at the first opportunity. This yet again puts Macron under pressure and renders the parliament ineffective until the three-way split is fixed. And that’s the kicker.

Macron is in office as President until 2027; the parliament cannot be dissolved again until one year after the last election, which is July 2025. This means that Macron cannot back down from the mess without it becoming his legacy. Also, no better solution than Barnier is likely to come along for Macron because it is impossible to appoint a Prime Minister that will satisfy two out of the three main alliances in the parliament.

The Strategy: Oust Barnier

The NFP holds roughly one-third of the parliament and doesn’t need to support Ensemble (which has fewer seats). The RN is already stigmatised within France as a ‘far right’ or ‘neo-Nazi’ group, despite its considerable gains in the EU. It is therefore less likely to gain support among Ensemble voters. Macron is intent on staying on as President. The parliamentary make-up cannot change.

All the NFP needs to do is to show France how ineffective the centrists are at governing and by the next election, they can expect a significant portion of centrist voters to shift left. It’s not a hard move for them, given how many centrist voters shifted left at Macron’s own direction this year. With the consolidated support for the RN, Ensemble will be squeezed by both sides, with most of the gains likely moving to the left. This moves the country back to a duopoly. The next parliament will be the NFP versus RN, with Ensemble diminishing in influence.

This, of course, is all speculation. But this apparent strategy by the NFP is right out of Machiavelli’s The Prince.

Machiavelli at work

Machiavelli was sceptical of employing mercenaries. He wrote that mercenaries will leave a master for a higher bidder. In this case, the NFP left – and opposed – Macron’s Prime Minister as soon as supporting Macron no longer benefitted it. When it became clear that Ensemble relied on the NFP, the NFP had all the benefits it needed. A brief alliance with the RN to oust Barnier was a better opportunity and left Ensemble out in the cold.

Machiavelli encouraged the Medici to pick sides and to champion the weaker side where possible. This advice is usually interpreted as an endorsement of populism but that’s not all. The NFP happily backed the weakened Ensemble because it was on the back foot. By joining forces with Macron, the necessary result was more gains for the NFP precisely because they made the victory happen – even if Ensemble won more seats (which they didn’t). If Macron wanted to ally with anyone during the election, it should have been the RN because of its relative toxicity. It’s unlikely that Le Pen is ever going to enjoy broad majority support in France so opposing a stronger opponent – the NFP – would not have given significant benefit to the RN. This move would have consolidated support for Ensemble as the bulwark against the rise of the Left. Thus, the threat of the rising Right is greatly diminished.