Perhaps there was more to the row about golfing handicaps in the first Presidential debate last year, because while playing a round in Miami, Donald Trump swiftly restored the US as the global hegemon. At the end of a busy first week back in office, Trump deftly handled the first sign of resistance to his new deportation strategy by threatening to put Colombia into the ground. After the humiliation President Petro of Colombia endured, it’s unlikely that many other countries will attempt much resistance in the future. This is the economic aspect of peace through strength, and it’s merely a modern take on Sun Tzu’s concept of ‘attacking by stratagem’.
The Crusade of Colombia
President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, initially approved the arrival of two planes full of Colombian deportees. However, while they were in the air, he withdrew his approval. The planes had to return to the US. Petro, not known for his dedication to human rights, claimed that he objected to how the US treated these citizens of Colombia. Trump, fresh off the most productive first week in the White House of any recent Presidency, reverted to his previous policy of managing the global economy through his iPhone. In a post on his own platform, Truth Social, he condemned Petro’s refusal. The long post listed a series of overwhelming sanctions on Colombia and supporters of its government. These included 25% tariffs on all exports to the US (increasing to 50% after one week) and travel restrictions on all Party Members.
Petro attempted a retaliation, matching the 25% tariff for US exports to Colombia, but soon capitulated. Petro agreed to repatriate the migrants from Colombia on his own plane. Trump won the round, projecting strength not only to Colombia, but the rest of the world. In a single post on his own social media platform, Donald Trump neutralized any threat to his mass-deportation policy.
Attack by Stratagem
Millenia ago, Chinese military master, Sun Tzu, wrote that the best way to win a war is to avoid it altogether. By raising the stakes so high, he wrote, it will not be worth your enemy’s while to attack you. This philosophy has guided all kinds of battle since, from guerrilla warfare to Reagan’s ‘peace through strength’. A week into Trump 2.0, it is clear that ‘peace through strength’ is back in force. While Reagan applied the doctrine to increased military spending, Trump – a businessman at heart – also applies it to economics.
The US and Colombia are not fairly matched. The US is the number one destination for Colombian exports and they enjoy a trade surplus with them. With Colombia at a measly #22 on the list of export locations, accounting for less than 1% (0.9%) of US annual exports, there is a clear imbalance between the two countries. Trump’s strategy of dropping the hammer and destroying the economy of Colombia was decisive. Colombia would not recover from the sanctions and the travel restrictions would only add to Petro’s domestic unpopularity. Sanctions by Colombia on the US, however, would have almost no effect.
Lessons from Colombia
There are a number of lessons in this story, beyond the obvious indications of how Trump will lead over the next four years.
Know thyself – and know thine enemy
Trump was able to act swiftly to bring down the hammer because he had a deep understanding of the US-Colombia trade relationship. Based on the weak response from Petro, it appears that Petro may not have understood the relationship quite as well. A key factor to making it not worth your enemy’s while to attack lies in swift action. It is intimidating to receive such a quick and pointed threat that it makes your enemy more likely to miss key details like your own weaknesses. For example, maybe Colombia could have found a way to build a coffee-loving resistance within the US if they had paused to consider their options.
Match your strengths to your enemy’s weaknesses
It is not enough to know the strengths and weaknesses on both sides. You must match your strengths to your enemy’s weaknesses and shield your own weaknesses.
America has great strength in its military, but that doesn’t mean military action is the right approach. Colombia boasts one of the largest militaries in South America, with conscription for males between 18-24. Additionally, the global fallout of a military manoeuvre would outweigh the benefit of landing two planes in Colombia. The great weakness of Colombia, on the other hand, is its trade reliance on the US, which supplies nearly one-quarter of its national exports. Tariffs effectively reduce Colombian trade income by 20-25% overnight, with little room for real retaliation. Colombia has to accept the planes or face a crippled economy and inevitable domestic unrest.
Quickly make an example of dissenters
Machiavelli’s oft-quoted advice is that it is better to be feared than to be loved. Trump, unsurprisingly, takes this to heart. By dealing so viciously with Colombia – Trump sent a message to the world: mess with America at your peril. Despite weeks of sarcastic comments about the Gulf of America and grumbling about the deportation policy, Mexico has accepted repatriation flights with minimal issues.
Stand up to Trump, but do it properly!
Other countries do, of course, have a duty to stand up to Trump on behalf of their own citizens. But they must do so wisely. Ireland’s new Foreign Minister, Simon Harris, would be better off studying Trump than calling him a ‘gowl’. By leveraging Ireland as a strategic base for US foreign service and its potential influence within the EU, for example, he could perhaps deal with the new President more effectively than the petty retaliation efforts from Colombia.
