Another election, another ‘FFFG’ government. Sinn Féin is in with a real shot at government for the first time since 1918, but only as a minor coalition partner. For eight years, the governing duopoly has moved ever closer to indistinguishability. Yet the party still has not taken the reins of power. Given the massive rise in popularity in 2020, Sinn Féin’s history is not the only thing holding it back. The natural consequence of a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition was a Sinn Féin government in 2025. Yet despite Fine Gael losing popularity for the third consecutive election, it’s one deal away from extending its reign to 19 years in power. Fianna Fáil’s post-2008 recovery is complete as the largest party in the Dáil. Sinn Féin, it seems, has missed its opportunity to lead a government of change. To figure out how it can recover, we must look at how it rapidly grew from a small semi-fringe party to the only challenger to the duopoly in a century.
The Rapid Rise of Sinn Féin
Despite being 120 years old, Sinn Féin’s rise has been rapid over the last 25 years. Gerry Adams led Sinn Féin through the Troubles, the Good Friday Agreement, and its return to the Dáil. However, his explicit links with the IRA made it difficult for Sinn Féin to become a mainstream entity. It would be the political wing of a terrorist organisation for as long as they shared leadership. When Mary Lou McDonald took over leadership in 2018, this former member of Fianna Fáil was a fresh political face ready to refocus the party on left-wing populism and away from political violence. By 2020, the party was ready to hit the big time. Four years of an ersatz coalition between the governing duopoly presented an opportunity for the largest small party to become the joint largest party in the Dáil. The vacuum in opposition left by the Confidence & Supply Agreement allowed for Sinn Féin to campaign for a real change in government for the first time since they established the First Dáil.
Successful Approach
The party proactively organised the working class in the months leading up to the election and fought for votes on the ground. By McDonald’s own admission, the only stumbling block was the party’s candidate strategy. With a first preference voter share of 24.5% – well clear of the other two main parties – the party received enough votes in several constituencies to win multiple seats where they only had one. The rise of Sinn Féin terrified the duopoly who put aside civil war differences after a century and joined forces to keep the party out of government. Varadkar and Martin kicked the Sinn Féin can down the road, knowing that the next election would inevitably see them both in opposition.
Falling Short
The next election has come and gone. Once more Sinn Féin has failed to win enough seats to lead a government. The party consolidated its gains in 2020 by winning roughly the same number of seats but it lost more than 5% of its vote share. In a year where incumbents have lost around the world, Sinn Féin did not win. Six months ago the party was set for historic gains. Polling collapsed before the Local and European elections and it has not yet recovered. Sinn Féin under McDonald has shifted from populist left to woke left. Ostensibly a left-wing Republican party, McDonald’s Sinn Féin has focused on social policy over socialist policy. Mirroring Fianna Fáil in their last opposition term, Sinn Féin has not provided any real opposition to the government.
Wrong focus
The party supported the two referenda earlier in the year. These were defeated in an unprecedented rejection of government policy by the people. It endorsed the radical Hate Speech bill until well after it was too late to oppose it in the Dáil. It has struggled to find a sweet spot on immigration, moving from an extreme pro-immigrant stance to a so-called “common sense” platform. The shift in policy is inauthentic. No voter would believe a party’s shift in approach when the only change is a couple of burnt-out paint factories and plummeting poll numbers. This has left the working class – Sinn Féin’s key voter base – disenfranchised. In a bizarre turn of events, the last five years has seen the Irish tricolour go from a symbol of nationalism pioneered by Sinn Féin to a banner of the so-called “far-right” that is so vehemently criticised by Sinn Féin. No wonder there has been a rise of such unrest in working class areas like McDonald’s own Dublin Central constituency.
Sinn Féin: A Majority Government
Sinn Féin missed its opportunity to lead a government but all is not lost. It consolidated its 2020 gains and 2029 is still on the table. This opportunity won’t come without significant preparation, though. Sinn Féin needs to completely overhaul its strategy if it wants to lead a government in the future. The party needs to realign its policies and its values. In short, they must be authentic. Sinn Féin is a left-wing Republican party at its core and to its core it must return. With the success of the party in the North and the proximity of a reunification referendum in the next 10-20 years, Sinn Féin has an opportunity to return to its Republican values. The major social change campaigns of the 2010s have passed. It’s time to focus on the next big goal: a 32 county republic. This overhaul can only be done effectively from opposition. (The party could stay in talks for long enough to weaken Fine Gael’s bargaining power and with it, its platform in the next election, before withdrawing.)
From there, five years of real opposition – actually holding the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition to account – will give the party a strong hand in 2029. An authentic left-wing alternative to two decades of Fine Gael, timed ahead of an ever-growing enthusiasm for re-unification is a recipe for success. And by success, we can reasonably expect Sinn Féinto lead the first majority government in 40 years.
