Strategy is a game of control. An effective strategist understands his own strengths and weaknesses – and those of others. Armed with this knowledge, he can control the outcome by matching his strengths to the weaknesses of others – rather than dealing with the specific issue at hand. This is “playing the man”.
Donald Trump showed how “playing the man” works in the Russia-Ukraine conflict this week. After a humiliating weekend, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky re-committed to the minerals deal after Friday’s fracas. As Trump moves closer to achieving significant peace deals in the two major hot wars that erupted since his last term, it’s clear that his strategy is effective. Putin and Zelensky are wildly different people. It’s natural that a shrewd arbiter would approach each leader differently. In other words, Trump is playing the man to achieve peace in Ukraine.
Playing Putin
Russia’s Putin is renowned as a strongman. In power for most of Russia’s post-Soviet history, he is used to dealing with global leaders through intimidation or deceit. Generally operating as a law unto himself, he positions himself as a great Russian patriot, fighting to reclaim the glory of Mother Russia. During Tucker Carlson’s interview last year, Putin spelled this out with a long, comprehensive history of Russia’s claim over Ukraine. He is a megalomaniac who picked up his country from its ashes. Naturally, he interprets disagreement as an affront to him personally and to his country. His reaction is to double down. In short, he is proud. Like a teenager in an unstable environment, Putin lashes out in shows of power to assert dominance. Usually, this works.
Trumping Putin
When Donald Trump took office in 2017, he out-Putin’d Putin. A now-famous story from last year’s campaign trail told of a conversation the two men had shortly after the 2017 inauguration. Putin explained his intentions with Ukraine. Trump vowed to unleash nuclear weapons on Russia if it crossed the Ukrainian border. Unwilling to call his bluff, Putin suspended plans to take over Ukraine. Trump, like Putin, positions himself as a great patriot, fighting to reclaim the glory of his country. However, the US is the global hegemon; Russia has a comparable GDP to the State of Florida. The only way Russia could beat the US would be by deploying nuclear weapons first. With a similar style but with more obvious power, it would be easy for Trump to beat Putin with a stick, forcing him to bend to his will. However, Putin’s pride is on the line, three years into a three-day war. Instead, Trump is playing the man. Trump is enticing Putin to the negotiation table. Putin is willing to negotiate peace, following the promise that Trump will guarantee his place in the world in exchange. Hence, Trump avoids insulting Putin or pointing out the many egregious faults he has.
Playing Zelensky
Zelensky, as previously discussed, appeared to be misled about the state of play in his own country last week. The Western World has lauded Ukraine for defending its territory against an illegal invasion. Three years into a three day war, Kyiv has yet to fall. The mettle of Ukraine is unwavering. This is not incorrect, however the chief of Ukrainian forces should fully appreciate the real reason for its survival: American aid. European leaders have pontificated a lot over its role in providing aid. However, Europe has given more money in energy trade alone to Russia since the start of the war than it has given to Ukraine. Yet even that is a negligible amount compared to America’s aid. In fact, Russian trade aside, Keir Starmer acknowledged on Sunday – after hosting a reactionary anti-US summit in London that day – that Europe’s help would be useless without US backing. Clearly, the puffery about Ukrainian courage has gone to Zelensky’s head. In short, he is delusional.
Playing himself
Zelensky has operated in the delusion that Ukraine can win the war without the US for quite a while. Despite his central role in Trump’s first impeachment, he seemed unaware of how bad it looked to campaign against him in October. Aside from technically being a felony under the Foreign Agents Registration Act 1938, it assumed that the Democrats would stay in power. At the very least, it assumed that Trump would forgive him for a blatant and unnecessary act of betrayal.
Trumping Zelensky
Armed with his own indispensability and Zelensky’s delusion, Trump had to treat Zelensky quite differently. Playing the man in this case requires a show of strength. To borrow a phrase, Trump had to knock some sense into Zelensky. The pusillanimous compliance with his growing demands from the previous administration evidently pushed peace further away. Instead, Trump turned up the aggression against the Ukrainian president. This showed sincerity to Putin and invited him to the negotiating table. It also forced Zelensky’s – and Europe’s – hands and they came to the right answer pretty quickly. Ukraine cannot survive without the US.
Playing The Man
When a strategist holds the balance of power – as Trump does in these talks – it is important that both sides know it. Otherwise, he is forced to wield the power. Friday’s Oval Office obduration is a perfect example. Zelensky showed no recognition that, to quote Trump, he didn’t “have the cards”. The response – “I’m not playing cards” – was, perhaps, the most accurate statement Zelensky made about his position during the meeting. Zelensky ran to London to fight back against Trump. Within a day, his supposed allies announced his weakness. Trump twisted the knife by suspending all US aid to Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, Zelensky re-committed to peace talks within a few hours.
The previous administration played the ball, not the man. Recognizing Russia as an adversary and Ukraine as an ally, Biden’s administration leaned in. This incited Putin further and gave Zelensky a misleading understanding of his chances to win the war. By playing the man, Trump dominates the conflict, appealing to each man’s weakness. Victory lies in playing the man.
