With somewhat conflicted feelings, I dare say I have had a more productive two weeks since my last Political Strategy post than the opposition in Dáil Éireann. On the one hand, things are going well for Birch Lea Strategies. On the other, Sinn Féin et al are struggling to land punches on the new Government. So far, the opposition has focused primarily on procedural matters rather than the policy opposition that earns votes. It is still early in the lifetime of the present Government, but if the opposition does not change course soon, Ireland could find itself heading into the 2030s with the same Government it has had since 2020. To identify areas of improvement, we can look at the overall strategy of the opposition, its particular policy focus, and the activities of smaller opposition parties so far.
Opposition Strategy
The overall opposition strategy has been poor on policy, but strong on unity. The top-line strategy by the opposition parties in the current Dáil so far has been to attack the Government over procedural matters. There is a lot to discuss about the speaking rights debacle – as evidenced by the amount of media time it has taken up over the last month. However, it is difficult to see how the ordinary Irish voter feels represented by the opposition when she receives constant push notifications from her news apps about Dáil Standing Orders.
The upshot, however, has been a more unified opposition than the Dáil has seen since the duopoly started to merge in 2016.
Perhaps it’s the anger at a continuation of the same Government term in, term out. Perhaps it’s the absence of the less socialist Independents from the opposition ranks. Or perhaps it’s a new strategy thought up by someone who realized they kept losing elections. Whatever it is, a new duopoly is forming in Ireland. No longer is it pro-Treaty versus anti-Treaty. Now it is the establishment versus, well, the establishment but more left-leaning. Left-wing parties in Ireland have long called for a ‘united left’ Government, but its focus is off. Ordinary voters face ever-mounting problems with housing, forced emigration, and a spike in crime. They couldn’t care less about who gets to speak in the Dáil.
Foreign Policy
The opposition – led by Sinn Féin – has not been subtle about its ideological approach to foreign policy. Trump must be opposed at all costs. Ukraine must beat Russia. Ireland supports Palestine. The EU is our great benefactor. These would be strong messages for Sinn Féin if they were not identical to the policies and rhetoric the Government parties have used for years. Simon Harris is on record calling Donald Trump a ‘gowl’ so there’s not much anyone can do to outperform the Government in opposing the US President.
Opposition to Trump
Nevertheless, Sinn Féin continues to try. A shrewd political operator would have seized the opportunity to upstage Micheál Martin – or his absence – in the White House next month. An opposition making more effective inroads with the US administration would show voters they are better equipped to lead the country. Alternatively, they could make a big song and dance about not going to an event – to which they have yet to receive an invite – and enjoy another self-congratulatory 24 hour news cycle. Alas, they chose the latter, less effective path.
Neutrality
In fact, the only foreign policy matter with real opposition is Ireland’s triple lock neutrality. Sinn Féin, known for its unwavering support for Irish independence from Britain, wants to maintain the status quo. Fianna Fáil, on the other hand, wants to remove the authority of the British government and its UN Security Council colleagues over Irish defence. What use is opposing the Government when it does your policy better than your party?
Smaller Opposition Parties
Lest Sinn Féin take all the blame, smaller opposition parties are not doing much to increase their voter share in the next election either.
Social Democrats
The Social Democrats, post-Eoin Hayes, are happily joining in on the Dáil Reform fun. In the absence of Holly Cairns, the party seems more distant from bread-and-butter issues than Hayes is from his Palantir stock. Cian O’Callaghan’s media performances have not significantly improved since the Leaders’ Debate in November. Similarly, his strategic focus on issues voters don’t care about will likely ensure a further extended run of the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael Government.
Labour
Labour under Ivana Bacik is buoyed by its better-than-expected performance in the election. But a party which is literally named for its primary bread-and-butter issue should have a little more awareness on the importance of populism. Perhaps the party is aware, hence the continued media coverage of her rescue dog, Ginny. “Vote Lab(our), they love dogs” is not a slogan I would ever propose, but perhaps it is whimsical enough to attract votes in this time of rapid societal decline.
Aontú
Internationally, Aontú has the highest profile of all the small parties in the Dáil as a result of its founding circumstances. However, its reputation is that of an unsuccessful, one-man party caught up in the orthodox view of the Middle East to the neglect of its disproportionately heterodox voter base. Its inability to capture the mood or views of the 33% pro-life voter base stunts its growth and pushes its base to even less competent, right-wing parties. An accelerationist might hope for a Toibín presidential campaign. After six years of desperately slow growth, nothing, surely, would provide the final nail on the party’s coffin as effectively as that.
Opposition: Oppose!
Ireland does not have – and never has had – complex politics. This is why it lasted an entire century bouncing between two parties with identical views on everything except for Partition. With the rise of more brazen left-wing politics in the country, it should be a slam dunk opportunity for Sinn Féin and its ‘united left’ counterparts. Oppose the Government and pick up votes. Yet time after time, year after year, it sides with the Government on unpopular policy and firmly opposes it on matters nobody cares about outside of the House. Be it Sinn Féin, Aontú, or any other opposition party, the first one to dedicate itself entirely to bread-and-butter issues in an authentic way will hold the balance of power after the next election.
