Much of Ireland languishes in an imposed luddite existence after Storm Éowyn. Yet Sinn Féin is focusing on the conflict in the Middle East, not its own constituents. Politicians have finally rectified the matter of Schrodinger’s Independents (being both for and against the Government at the same time) and the new cabinet ministers have finished their new job orientation. It is time for Sinn Féin to highlight the new Government’s failures and campaign for the next election. The party is distracted, though. It wants to show voters its perceived virtue, not its ability to govern. Sinn Féin is bringing back the Occupied Territories Bill.
The Occupied Territories Bill
The Occupied Territories Bill is a legislative codification of the ‘Boycott, Divest, and Sanction’ (BDS) movement. In effect, it calls for economic war against Israel as a protest for its actions in the Middle East. Largely a student movement, BDS has gained traction since the October 7 attacks ended the most recent ceasefire in the region. The new fervor for the movement expedited the Bill, first proposed back in 2018. The outgoing government shelved the bill shortly before the most recent General Election, at least in part due to the US Ambassador’s intervention.
Disaster for Ireland
Over the last seven years, there has been no doubt about the ramifications of the bill for Ireland. Israel is a significant trading partner with which Ireland has a significant trade deficit. Attorney General Séamus Woulfe advised in 2020 that it could open Ireland up to EU fines for a breach in trade regulations. Opponents to the bill have floated the idea that it would outlaw Christian pilgrimages to the Holy Land. More recently, Regina Doherty MEP publicly acknowledged the ramifications from both Israel and the US if the Occupied Territories Bill became law. In her interview with RTE at the start of January, she pointed out the minor effect the bill would have on Israel compared to the significant self-inflicted damage it would pose on Ireland. This did not stop her from fully endorsing the bill, though.
Donald Trump has entered the chat
The key element at play with the Occupied Territories Bill is not Ireland or Israel, but rather the new administration in Washington DC. 16 days into Trump’s second term, he has faced down threats from Colombia, Mexico, and Canada. Panama has announced its decision to leave China’s Belt and Road Initiative in favor of the US. El Salvador is offering its maximum security prisons for American use. The EU is quaking in its boots awaiting the onslaught of Trump tariffs later this week. That a new Government would poke the bear of the most fast-paced US administration in living memory to score some virtue points with voters – who can’t read the news due to electricity shut-offs – is perhaps indicative of Ireland’s falling esteem around the world. Only a truly idiotic Government would pass the Occupied Territories Bill right now. Only a truly idiotic opposition party would lead the charge.
Poor timing for the Occupied Territories Bill
Timing is also a factor. Trump stunned the world yesterday – including, based on his reaction, Netanyahu himself – when he announced that the US would take over Gaza and rebuild it. The announcement itself is rich in political strategy to analyze. With this new frame, it begs the question: would the Occupied Territories Bill put Ireland on a path to boycott the US directly through its occupation of the Gaza strip?
Aside from Trump’s announcement yesterday, Sinn Féin’s decision to revive the bill today was always poorly timed. Not only are the ramifications from Storm Éowyn not being dealt with, the natural timeline of passing this bill at this stage would line up quite nicely with St. Patrick’s Day.
Forget tariffs, the White House would have the annual Shamrock Ceremony as leverage. If Micheál Martin failed to receive an invitation to the White House in March, other countries might follow suit. In short, Ireland’s reputation as a harmless ‘Paddy’ would be ruined if Washington put obvious distance between it and Dublin.
Focus on the election
It should be pretty obvious how Sinn Féin should handle the matter: focus on the next election. As a political party, that is its primary goal. If Sinn Féin really wants to go into Government (a question for another time!), it needs to start campaigning for it. As the leading opposition party, that means highlighting the mistakes of the Government, not joining it. A return to its populist roots is key for Sinn Féin to enter Government in 2029. In fact, its apparent abandonment of populism is why it has been falling in the polls over the last 12 months.
A return to populism
Right now, Storm Éowyn and the ensuing failures of the new Government should be Sinn Féin’s number one focus.
The party opposes the Government well on procedural matters like speaking rights and cabinet appointments. However, acting on Storm Éowyn and its fallout will put the new Government squarely on the back foot and win votes. If anything can be learned from Trump’s second term so far, it is that the opening bout determines how the rest of the term will go. Sinn Féin must focus on putting Micheál Martin into embattlement mode from the start to minimize his impact during his term. Effective opposition attacks will not only reduce the wins the Government will get this term but will also chalk up wins for Sinn Féin to run on in 2029. During the last five years, Sinn Féin failed to provide any meaningful opposition and voters punished them for it. It’s critical that it does not make the same mistake again.
Grassroots work is key. If constituents notice that they are getting help from Sinn Féin TDs, Councillors, and local representatives and this trend continues for five years, 2029 could easily double the number of Sinn Féin seats in the Dáil and usher in a new era for Irish politics.
That is, of course, if Sinn Féin actually wants to govern.
