People don’t like change. Incumbents will stay in power unless a challenger provides a compelling case for their ouster. But with more than 4bn people in the world voting in elections this year, there has been one consistent result: the incumbents have been successfully challenged. In fact, incumbency itself has been successfully challenged. In this most unprecedented of times, voters are consistently looking for change. Across Europe, there is a rise in ‘change candidates’ from the ECR in Brussels to the AfD in Germany. The Tory party in the UK received its worst defeat in history after 15 years in power. Just last week, the American people handed the Democrats a full-throated rejection. In Ireland, the two historic main parties are the incumbents, so how should party leaders approach this election?
Fine Gael
Fine Gael has been in government for 13 years. This is a fairly indisputable claim for incumbency. But its leader, Simon Harris, is demonstrably not an incumbent. He took over as leader and Taoiseach a mere seven months ago. In fact, he has not been in politics for long enough to experience being in Opposition. Fine Gael’s success in the Local and European elections in June showed he can pick and choose the party record he wants to run on, while employing the same aspirational tactics that tend to propel opposition parties into power. He is a more charismatic leader than his predecessor and the polls reflect this – as does his large TikTok following. Fine Gael is running on a platform of ‘New Energy’, apparently eschewing its own incumbency in favour of Harris’ aspirational ascent to power.
Fianna Fáil
Micheál Martin, leader of Fianna Fáil, was first elected to the Dáil in 1989. He has been in politics since the last two Taoisigh were in primary school. Definitionally an incumbent, Martin is the closest thing Ireland has to what Americans would consider a ‘swamp monster’. His tenure as party leader has facilitated Fine Gael’s incumbency and rejected any change in the governing duopoly. In 2016, he agreed to support Fine Gael’s government despite being in opposition. In 2021, he became Taoiseach as part of a rotating Taoiseach agreement with the same party. Both deals, it must be acknowledged, were primarily motivated by keeping Sinn Féin out of power.
Sinn Féin
Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin’s leader, has long-been campaigning for the office of Taoiseach. Sinn Féin has no claim to incumbency and McDonald leans heavily into this positioning. McDonald initially attempted to form a government in 2021. After Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael agreed to a coalition, she began referring to herself as ‘Leader of the Opposition’, an unofficial term borrowed from Westminster which no-one ever used in Ireland before.
The party fielded 335 candidates in the Local elections this year. It was a mistake which cost the party at the ballot box, but it was the latest declaration of war against the incumbent parties by showing the sheer power by numbers the party has. Sinn Féin has collapsed in the polls over the last six months. This is largely due to an ever-growing disconnect between the values of its membership – Republicanism and working class socialism – and those of its leadership – embrace of ‘wokeism’ and a thirst for power.
Incumbency: to use or not to use?
An incumbent party will win this election, but perhaps in spite of its incumbency. Irish people are not yet ready for a Sinn Féin government and – based on its struggle for policy alignment throughout its base – perhaps neither is Sinn Féin.
Fine Gael
My advice for Fine Gael would be to lean into improvements since Harris’ takeover. The ‘New Energy’ slogan underpinning the election campaign sets the party up to build on its successes in the June elections. Despite being the sitting Taoiseach, Harris has an opportunity to challenge the incumbency of Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil by positioning them as the ‘old guard’. The short election period allows for a well-messaged campaign. Focus on successes of the government and drown out any criticisms. This two-pronged approach should be enough for Fine Gael to benefit from the successes of its incumbency while putting forward an aspirational vision of the country’s youngest Taoiseach.
Fianna Fáil
For Fianna Fáil, the best approach is to balance incumbency and aspirational hope in a slightly different way. The party has a neat divide between long-standing political dynasties and a newer generation. By putting forward a carefully selected first bench of spokespeople, Micheál Martin could balance experienced incumbents with young, promising members. Seán Haughey and Willie O’Dea are trusted Fianna Fáil names while Jack Chambers and James O’Connor match Harris’ ‘New Energy’. The party could go one step further and reject Harris’ claim that anything has changed in Fine Gael at all. Only seven months in, he has not achieved anything. Martin can use his front bench to go toe-to-toe with Fine Gael on specific policy issues. Most voters would trust Jim O’Callaghan – or literally anyone – as Justice Minister over Helen McEntee, for example.
Of course, both parties will blame the Green Party, the third coalition partner, for every failing of the last five years. The 2024 incumbency curse has to land somewhere, and that’s the payoff for being in government when you only have 12 seats!
