It’s been a little over a year since the Dublin Riot and last night Katie Hannon hosted a row far less exciting than setting a LUAS on fire. Six party representatives joined RTÉ Upfront to debate the topic of immigration. Hannon reprised her role as exasperated substitute teacher looking after an unruly class at lunchtime. The politicians on the panel didn’t do much better.
Let’s look at how each party performed and what the strategic implications are ahead of the election on Friday.
Reality of Immigration
There was only one winner last night: Fiona from Dundrum. An eloquent member of the audience, Fiona struck a perfect balance. She supported the plight of Ukrainian refugees in her town and balanced it with the simple fact that the government’s policy has doubled the population of the village. In an exchange which at times came off as a heated debate with the presenter, Fiona calmly made the memorable points she needed to make to re-centre immigration as a key issue of this election. 200 police descended on a town of 200 people to enforce a government policy. It’s reminiscent of the Land League struggle against the British 150 years ago.
Immigration Politicking
Fine Gael
Helen McEntee, outgoing Minister for Justice and Deputy Leader of Fine Gael, kicked off the debate by lowering the intelligence of the studio considerably. McEntee has been polling exceptionally poorly in recent years. She has overseen rising crime, declining police numbers, and a deeply unpopular Hate Speech Bill. That’s not to mention, of course, her increasing failures on immigration.
A foreign student asked about the housing crisis, and McEntee declared that Ireland needs immigrants to build the houses to house said immigrants. Somehow, that should solve the pre-existing housing crisis in Ireland. A monumentally stupid idea, my optimistic side wonders if this was a tactic to shock her co-panellists and distract them for the rest of the night. Alas, her record suggests that it is not the case. Perhaps it’s a very long con and the shoe is due to drop at any moment. As things stand, she remains the worst walking ad for both Fine Gael and DCU Law School. Needless to say, Fine Gael’s decline in the polls will continue after McEntee’s performance last night.
Fianna Fáil
Fianna Fáil’s James Brown had a notable contribution at the half-hour mark. He was the first panellist to explicitly pitch an idea from a party manifesto. His suggestion to establish a Department of Domestic Affairs to specifically manage immigration was criticised by both sides.
Opposition parties dismissed it as five years too late. Government colleagues suggested it was impractical to establish a new department – a solution, if you will – in the midst of a crisis. All in all, Brown was not hugely memorable during the debate. He put forward the party’s main immigration policy, disavowed dissenting party candidates on the issue, and threw the required few jabs at Sinn Féin for flip-flopping on policy. It’s unlikely that Fianna Fáil will move in the polls after last night unless it’s in favour of an opposition party.
Green Party
Roderic O’Gorman spent the evening exhibiting exactly why he’s fighting for his seat in Dublin West. Intent on interrupting everybody on the panel, O’Gorman must have heard the Green Party still had some potential voters after his performance last week. It is quite likely that he lost a couple of thousand more votes from the Immigration Debate. As the Minister for Integration, O’Gorman is responsible for the many problems his opponents complained about. However, he received no support from his government colleagues on the stage. He should have come in strong on workable solutions, eased off defending his party’s record given its unpopularity, and stayed quiet for more of the debate.
Sinn Féin
Matt Carthy of Sinn Féin came in all guns blazing against government policy. He was reasonably rebuffed at one point for his party’s former pro-immigration stance. Otherwise, he did a great job of putting the government parties under pressure. By no means a winning night for Sinn Féin, Carthy did a good job of holding the government to account and forcing a number of errors. There is nothing memorable about Sinn Féin’s proposed solutions like Fianna Fáil’s new department. Yet Sinn Féin certainly avoided too much of a downside from the debate.
Independent Ireland
Independent Ireland’s performance last night was a significant improvement on last week. Michael Fitzmaurice was an active participant, albeit too active at times. He got stuck in and broadly represented the popular feeling on immigration better than any other panellist. He stopped short of going full populist, but certainly presented his party as a realistic alternative to the government on immigration.
Aontú
By the time Aontú released its definitive immigration policy earlier this year, public feeling was broadly frustrated with the party for not being hard enough on the issue. This certainly fed into its lacklustre performance in the elections in June.
Fortunately for Peadar Toibín, “waving papers in [McEntee’s] face” is finally coming through. Public sentiment is tilting towards the party for those critical of the current policy. Toibín fell a little shorter than Fitzmaurice on the populism angle. While he was considerably toned down from last week’s debate, Toibín was active enough last night to see the rise in the polls continue through to Friday’s polling day.
Overall, Irish politics continues to produce uninspiring debates. The opposition generally did a great job of pointing out the government’s failings on immigration while the government parties struggled to defend their record. Although immigration has grown as an issue in Ireland over the last year, this debate is unlikely to shift polls dramatically. But it will continue the general trend of Fine Gael falling and all opposition parties rising. The results on Saturday will likely show a more even spread among all Dáil parties than we’ve ever seen before.
