Over the weekend, another crime shocked Dublin. A Brazilian man – with prior drug-related arrests – allegedly went on a stabbing spree in Stoneybatter. The identity of the perpetrator has no bearing on how terrible the crime is. It does, however, play into the politics around the event. Dublin has experienced a sharp increase in illegal immigration broadly facilitated by government policy. During the same period, Dublin has experienced an unprecedented rise in crime numbers.
It should come as no surprise that those who join the dots are experiencing significant political gains. In this latest episode, two Dublin City Councillors, Gavin Pepper and Malachy Steenson, stormed out of a Council meeting yesterday to protest the assembly’s refusal to discuss crime as a topical issue in its meeting. In an environment where populist representatives struggle to wield any power or influence in the governmental structure, how does an action like this play into the politics of the moment?
The Immigration Debate
Anyone who loudly criticizes illegal immigration, we are told, is part of the nefarious ‘far right’. Donald Trump, Victor Orbán, Nigel Farage, Gavin Pepper, Javier Milei, and countless others are essentially the same person: iterations of racist, xenophobic, nazis driven by hate. While the international figures in that short list are part of a broad, unofficial, ‘anti-collectivist’ alliance. Gavin Pepper and his colleagues are decidedly not. Notably, in Ireland the so-called ‘far right’ has a strong correlation with socialism. Malachy Steenson spent most of his political career in Sinn Féin and the Workers Party until the latter expelled him over his views on abortion. In other words, he is Peadar Tóibín with a more vocal stance on immigration policy. Gavin Pepper, beneath his combative rhetoric on immigration, focused entirely on pro-community policies. Javier Milei would scream ‘¡Afuera!’ at Pepper’s government-funded boxing club proposal in Finglas. Both have drawn their support in recent elections from the base of ‘disenfranchised Sinn Féin working class’. This group rejects Sinn Féin’s move towards ‘woke’ policies like gender theory and relaxed immigration laws but remains in lockstep on everything from Irish Republicanism to fairly aggressive wealth redistribution.
New political order
Much like the US, the political divide in Ireland is establishment versus anti-establishment. The establishment has a distinct advantage. Incumbent political parties receive all the tightly-regulated government funding. Sinn Féin holds a monopoly on external funding sources. They have worked out all the loopholes to allow for dollars to land in a Stormont-linked account. Independent Councillors like Steenson and Pepper have no access to these resources to build a movement beyond local immigration protests.
The Establishment
The Irish establishment inherently favors globalism and with it, broadly supportive of immigration in its various forms. Ostensibly, at least, Ireland’s insistence on welcoming migrants stems from its own history of arriving in nearly every other country in the world during a 120 year period of mass-emigration which ended only half a century ago. The culture of Céad Míle Fáilte – one hundred thousand welcomes – influences national policy perhaps more than a twee native saying should. Digging deeper, the underlying principle behind global support for migration is a broader philosophical shift away from borders. Initiatives like the European Union, the Schengen Area, and even the Anglo-Irish Common Travel Area, tend to benefit small countries like Ireland. Providing easy access for foreigners, it helps to level the playing field for international trade and attracts an international workforce.
Ireland’s 1980s focus on manufacturing was significantly aided by its recent accession to the EU. It is no surprise, then, that the establishment which supports this pro-migration worldview goes to great lengths to downplay any perceived links between rising crime and rising immigrant population. Indeed, such was the groundswell of support for Caio Benicio for apprehending a criminal in November 2023 that Fianna Fáil nominated him for elected office. The identity of the Algerian perpetrator of that crime was hidden. The tricolors associated with the ensuing riot were beamed on every screen in the world.
The Anti-Establishment
Understandably, this antagonizes the underdog anti-establishment movement. The movement, with its Sinn Féin working class base, builds on the victim mindset fostered by Sinn Féin for decades. An increasingly disgruntled movement sees the establishment giving preference to, for example, individuals who destroy their passport on arrival in Dublin Airport. Meanwhile the natives who suffer through rent pressure zones, progressive taxes, and spiralling public service backlogs. It is an impressive failure for the establishment to incite a socialist, Jacobin-based movement to prioritize strict borders.
Fighting the battle
In this context, both the establishment and the anti-establishment are at a crossroads. The establishment maintains dominance through its control of politics, the media, and both domestic and international political funding. It’s not certain to crumble, but the Democrats’ plummet from grace in the US should be a lesson to all. The Irish establishment, therefore, needs to defend its control, aware that public sentiment will draw influence from the success of international movements on both sides of the Atlantic.
The anti-establishment forces must be realistic. Generally unconnected to – and unaligned with – its international counterpart movements, it is not likely to attract international support beyond the odd retweet from Elon Musk. This, oddly enough, benefits the domestic movement. Association with Trump or Farage, for example, would further alienate the movement from its potential supporters in Ireland. Staging PR stunts like walkouts from meetings are, presently, the best chance the anti-establishment has of drawing attention to its cause. This guerrilla-style approach to courting attention must be consistent to be effective, but it is the best option the movement has.
