Climate activists are attacking Tesla. A Republican President is ending wars. The Democrats tried to shut down the government. Politics in America has turned on its head. Gone are the days of left and right or liberal and conservative. A new revolution is afoot. The anti-Jacobins are in power. They have defeated the old establishment.
The old establishment neatly split between liberal and conservative. As subjective terms, the precise meanings have changed over the years. Most recently, liberal referred to a left-wing, progressive view, with conservatives on the right.
The Left
This left-wing faction of the establishment focused on the collective, seeking the common good for the most people. Verging on utilitarianism, it sought to redistribute wealth to the poor. Left-wing social policy is heavily influenced by the development of Marxist thought. As Carl Trueman points out, the traditional nuclear family is the new bourgeoisie. Abortion and a proliferation of broad sexuality of all kinds were key to overthrowing that supposedly oppressive institution. More recently, this logic has further developed into critical theory. In essence, various factors indicating privilege create a hierarchy of bourgeoisie, with each level overthrowing the levels above it. The left-wing of the establishment was always a ticking time bomb, set to implode as soon as it gained too much popularity.
The Right
On the conservative right-wing of the establishment, the focus was on individual freedom and community. In the US, this was the underlying value of the original settlers and the pioneers of the Manifest Destiny days. Each individual worked for the betterment of their family first. They alone would decide how much to help their community based on what they could spare. Those with a broad community approach saw America as the global hegemon and supported its overseas spread of values.
With this focus on family, the nuclear family model with a strong home life and extended family support structures was key. Unsurprisingly, it led to socially conservative values. A family-centered society will naturally frustrate the reasons given for abortion. Sexuality outside of its family-centered purpose is irrelevant, let alone a centerpoint of societal discourse. The family structure begot duty. That duty was to give the next generation a better starting point in life than the last.
The electorate chose every election between the community and the collective. Their decision, usually, was based on which aspect had lost out the most since the previous election.
Turning Point
Somewhere along the way, the establishment has shifted. It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact cause.
Perhaps it was the Vietnam War and the successive military defeats the US faced. The 9/11 attacks in 2001 united the country briefly before Afghanistan and Iraq sped up the pace of US military decline. Perhaps it was the 2008 financial crash. This reset orders around the globe and led directly to the Obama presidency. His 2009 Apology Tour certainly inspired no confidence in the establishment at home or abroad. By 2016 there was already a pushback globally. Britons had voted to leave the EU in 2015 and Americans elected its first President with no previous political experience.
Yet the establishment was still largely the same. Some would argue that the abject failure of the Biden administration triggered it. The humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, record-shattering economic trauma, and relentless top-down attacks on Trump and his allies certainly went a long way toward shifting perspectives in the US. Or maybe it was not a specific event that triggered it but rather a change in how we interact. The rise of social media has paved the way for a new media landscape. Mainstream outlets have lost trust and the next iteration of media appears to be individual journalists and commentators, not media outlets. Andy Ngo, Michael Shellenberger, Nate Silver, and countless others have paved the way for this shift over the last decade. Most likely, the shift is the result of all of these things and. People are starting to realize that the establishment wears no clothes.
The Anti Establishment
The new establishment does not map onto the old model anymore. The right wing – in the US at least – has not really existed for years. One could argue that it left the Republican party when Reagan did. The Bushes were not particularly socially conservative and Romney’s 2012 candidacy was just proof that the party had no good candidate left to field. While the left wing spirals out of control and cannibalizes itself, the Republican party has been taken over by the anti establishment. A coalition of disparate political, commercial, and social operators united by only one cause. They work together to overthrow the establishment.
Singular Anti Establishment
As a new administration ascends in Washington, there is no recognizable ideology. Of the 24 cabinet members, 10 are divorced at least once and one is in a same-sex relationship. At least three are former Democrats. One is a Hindu, while the rest are a smattering of practicing and non-practicing Christians and Jews. There is no consensus on hot button issues of the past like abortion or IVF. The new administration – the anti establishment – is united singularly on overthrowing the old establishment. Oddly, that is probably why it is moving so quickly. Everyone knows they agree on so little, the focus must be squarely on the joint mission.
Adjusting to a new Establishment
As political lines are redrawn and the establishment is being swiftly overthrown, it provides an opportunity for all ideologies. For libertarians, their time is now. With the rise of DOGE and shrinking the government, their dreams are being realized. Social conservatives are in preparing mode. With Vance and DeSantis waiting to continue Trump’s work, social conservatism is poised to become the new establishment. For the left-wing, on the other hand, they must unite behind a single issue and claw back credibility. If they’re not careful, the new establishment could be split between social and economic conservatives in the Republican party, with the Democrats fading into history. They need to moderate on the worst excesses of the movement and reach people where they are. Gavin Newsom’s recent moderation on transgenderism and his new long-form podcast are steps in the right direction. Time will tell if they will pay off.
