It’s Election Day!

Fianna Fáil ran a bland campaign. The ‘Moving Forward’ slogan is about as boring as any we’ve seen around the world in 2024. In general, Fianna Fáil stayed away from any scandal in this election which certainly won’t lose the party votes. That being said, there is nothing national about the campaign that will inspire anyone to go to the polls. Overall, not a fantastic campaign. Micheál Martin could have leaned into snappy proposals like the new Department of Domestic Affairs more. This would have galvanised around the immigration issue and to proposed tangible change in the next government.

Fine Gael has been plummeting in the polls throughout the campaign. The Simon Harris honeymoon is well and truly over, especially since the incident at Kanturk last weekend. The abject failure of the Fine Gael crisis team to handle the issue was the final nail on the campaign coffin. Of course, the party had a rough start with the John McGahon scandal. This was handled better than Kanturk. But the fact that it is still in the public conversation is not good for the election. Helen McEntee’s presence on the campaign trail was toxic. It’s hard to see the party grow while she is in any leadership position.

Sinn Féin had the biggest opportunity in this election but has failed to act on it. Complacent campaigners, the party has leaned into its position as ‘rightful heirs in waiting’ rather than pro-actively organising the working class. In the last election, they did this proactive work and missed out because they didn’t run enough candidates. Now they have mostly lost the working class vote over social issues. The party seems tired and almost expectant of power. It’s unlikely that this rubs off well with voters. They should have focused on bread and butter issues and built an aspirational campaign around a grassroots desire for a country run by a Sinn Féin government, not the general insistence that Mary Lou McDonald would be a great Taoiseach.

Aontú missed an opportunity

This election was a big test for Aontú. The party held its own in 2019 and 2020 when it was starting out. After a poor showing in June and successive failings in the North, this is the party’s last chance to convince its base that it has momentum. The party has built some momentum and it’s certain to hit the 2% threshold for state funding. But, the momentum is incidental, mostly down to the failure of other parties to inspire than anything the party has done itself.

The party projects 10 seats, a fantastical pipe dream six months after it barely scraped eight councillors and embarrassed itself on the European stage. Peadar Toibín’s insistence on being the party’s only spokesperson will always hold the party back. He appeared on Prime Time a few weeks ago discussing the Limerick constituency instead of the local candidate, Sarah Beasley. This sort of behaviour is unhelpful to the party and cynics might suspect it’s a way of elevating Toibín’s own career rather than capturing the mood of the disenfranchised pro-life vote post-2018. The loose organisation of the party will quite possibly benefit candidates locally, though. There could be some surprises around the country like in Mayo. An increase in TDs will necessitate an increase in national spokespeople, which will ultimately help the party to grow.

The smaller left-wing parties are set for another lacklustre performance. The ‘Vote Left, Transfer Left’ voting pact relies entirely on Sinn Féin for leadership into the next government. But the party is not leading the movement well. People Before Profit’s insistence on wearing keffiyahs likely irks the nativists, but its unlikely they would ever vote for the party anyway. The overall seat projection for small left-wing parties is mostly unchanged, indicating a lack of progress for the movement in this election.