‘Irish Twitter’ rocked with moral self-aggrandizement yesterday on the news that Israel will close its embassy to Ireland. This follows an ever-growing list of diplomatic offenses by Ireland to Israel, most recently the former’s decision to petition the International Court of Justice to redefine the term ‘genocide’ so that the latter could be found guilty of it. Israel withdrew its ambassador indefinitely in May when Ireland recognized Palestine as a sovereign state. It remains to be seen what Ireland needs to do for its delegation to Tel Aviv to be expelled by the government. For now, though, it remains.
Those interested in the moral justification for the actions on either side may well find their answers on X. This blog analyzes political strategy. Morality is rarely relevant in this field. In its spiralling quest to lead the world into a post-Christian century, Ireland yet again eschews a strategic approach to foreign affairs. This move – and its response – serves only to put Ireland on an even shakier footing as the most pro-Zionist administration in history prepares to re-enter the White House. Ireland has, in effect, waged diplomatic war against Israel over the last year. It’s only a matter of time before Washington gets involved.
The Irish-America Myth
There is a big hole in the Irish-America myth. Ireland has no formal connections in MAGA-world. From Mary Lou McDonald posing with Rashida Tlaib in March to Leo Varadkar partying with Pelosi at the DNC, official Ireland has all its diplomatic eggs in the Democrat basket. Since the crushing defeats in all branches of government last month, the Democrat party is a shell of its former self. Its focus will be on rebuilding. Representing the Irish cause to a unified government will not even make it to the list of priorities over the next four years. The incoming administration has made no secret about its pre-existing animosity towards Ireland. Commerce Secretary-nominate Howard Lutnick has long complained about Ireland’s trade surplus with the US. Elon Musk, mega-donor and influential advisor, is suing the Irish government over censorship. Vice President-elect JD Vance called for ‘China-style sanctions’ on Ireland only a year ago over its proposed Hate Speech bill. Ireland must face the reality: it has no friends in America, but Israel does.
Israel’s Advantage
Israel has struggled to achieve full support from DC during its current war effort, but Biden’s days in power are numbered. (That number, to be exact, is 35.) Even without full-throated support from Biden, Israel has all-but defeated Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iran. It is currently making plays into Syria since the fall of the Assad regime last week. Israel’s recent ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah uncoincidentally runs until less than a week after Trump’s inauguration. Netanyahu knows he will have Trump’s full support.
It is no wonder. Trump is the most pro-Israel POTUS in history. He moved the embassy to Jerusalem and convened the Abraham Accords – the closest the world has seen to peace in the Middle East probably since Abraham left Ur. There is no real doubt that Trump will end the war and Israel will be victors. With Israel on the inside of the new administration – and Ireland on the out – it takes no genius to figure how this breakdown of diplomacy will play out for Ireland. Spoiler: not very well.
Israel beats Ireland. Every time.
If Trump has to choose between Ireland and Israel, it will not be a difficult decision. The US already has its target set on Ireland as part of its America First approach. Israel has never relied heavily on Ireland for anything. After all, it has a more powerful ally in Ursula von der Leyen, a generally pro-Israel President of the EU Commission. Meanwhile, Ireland relies heavily on both. Ireland is disproportionately high on the list of exporters to both countries. The Irish economy is entirely reliant on Foreign Direct Investment to such a degree that a pullout from either the US or Israel would cause a significant dent. Ireland has had no effect in the policies of the US, Israel, or even the EU over the last year, which is representative of its insignificance. Ireland benefits from these countries far more than it benefits them. As argued previously, there is no reason for Ireland to lose its tech sector to US protectionism. However, it’s not unreasonable that pro-Israel, pro-Trump tax haven, Hungary, might be a new destination for companies wishing to avoid some Ireland-specific sanctions. As Ireland becomes less leprechaun and more goblin in the West, such sanctions only become more likely.
Saving Ireland
Ireland needs to switch gears – and fast. The outgoing government plans to draw out coalition talks until the New Year. But with 35 days remaining till Trump 2.0, there is no time to wait.
Ireland needs to cast a wide net to find people who have connections in Trump’s team. A big player like Declan Ganley would be an advantageous liaison between the two administrations. Even better, sending Alan Shatter would send the right signals internationally while making little difference domestically. Former Minister for Justice and outspoken Jew, Shatter has the experience of representing Ireland’s cause and would naturally downplay the anti-Israel sentiment while representing Ireland’s cause effectively in DC.
Ireland must follow other countries in their diplomatic efforts. Notre Dame’s re-opening last week was nearly overshadowed by the overt diplomacy on display. Everyone from Jill Biden to Prince William was on their best behavior, hoping to curry favor with the new President. Ireland is notably absent from this pursuit, choosing instead to further poke the American-Israeli bear.
With the Middle Eastern wars set to end in the coming months, Ireland would do well to lie low. Understandably, it cannot row back on its stance, but it can stop digging. Hopefully there will be enough to figure out post-war that Ireland’s incessant antagonism might be forgotten for the time being.
