I often wonder what it would be like to be a fly on the wall in a National Security Council meeting. Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic, Jeffrey Goldberg, claims he was one. In a shocking article published yesterday, Goldberg described how Michael Waltz – the National Security Advisor – added him to a Signal group chat with all the details about the upcoming Houthi strikes. Trump fans forever tout his proclivity to play ‘4D Chess’ which begs the question: was this gross incompetence or a master stroke? Whatever the purpose, this was a chess move. A Queen sacrifice usually dramatically changes the calculus. What matters is whether or not it was deliberate.
Signal Intent
There are a few reasons why the Administration might want to leak the Signal messages.
Thinking Theory
The messages show the pattern of thinking within the team. Contributions were measured and thought through, with the Vice President happy to go along with consensus once he had made his point. However, Trump’s approval ratings have been at record highs since his inauguration. With all the wins claimed by the Administration, it is difficult to see why it would need to share its thought processes. Not to mention, adding Goldberg to a private Signal chat undermines the point quite comprehensively.
Distraction Tactic
It could be a tactic to distract from other stories. This is always a consideration in politics. Between withholding critical information about the Titan tragedyto timing all of Trump’s indictments and case developments, the Biden Administration scripted the news to bury stories about Hunter. The purpose of this tactic is to alleviate pressure on the Administration, not to compound it. Adding an unfriendly journalist to a private Signal chat, however, is a high-risk way to do that.
A signal to Europe
The leak may have been intended to put Europe on notice. Messages – especially from Vance – highlight the Administration’s disdain for Europe and its reliance on the US. One could argue that the leak was designed to tell Europe that US support is not guaranteed. However, the Trump Administration has not been shy about this already. Europe has publicly acknowledged this.
Making the move
Did the leak happen in a way to convincingly suggest it was deliberate?
Disappearing Signal
The disappearing message setting on Signal could have been used to provide deniability. Leak the messages to a journalist and the evidence would promptly disappear. Add to this that all official communications must be documented so there could not be any disappearing setting on the messages if they were legitimate. A plausible theory, however some of the messages were set to delete after four weeks. This is a long time to wait. A one-to-two week period might carry more water for this theory so it is unlikely.
Picking a patsy
They may have selected Goldberg because he would definitely publish a leak. This is true. However, there was no guarantee that Goldberg would wait until after the strikes to publish the information. That was most likely Goldberg pre-emptively taking the moral high ground and keeping his nose clean. It is unclear why the team would want him to publish on his own schedule. Again, this is an unlikely theory.
The Apprentice
Trump seems unphased and has no plans to fire anyone. Known for his catchphrase, “You’re fired”, one would expect Trump to take a hard stance after even a minor glitch. Trump, however, is sticking by Waltz and the story that it was a staffer’s mistake – and a minor one at that. Surely, this indicates that there is something deeper going on that Trump approved. But while we wait for the other shoe to drop, it looks really bad for Trump’s Administration. The downside seems much bigger than the upside. This suggests there may be something more to the story.
Playing dumb
It seems that nobody reported the breach before the story broke. There were a number of members of the chat who did not contribute to the conversation and therefore had little to lose from reporting the breach – and nothing to gain from keeping quiet. After all, everyone would have got the Signal notification that Goldberg had left the chat more than a week ago. The chances that there was a perfect combination of people who did not notice the mistake and people who were too afraid to report it are virtually zero in a group of top-level national security individuals. The incompetency narrative struggles here.
Admission and attack
The Administration admitted to the mistake almost immediately. Further, Hegseth did not deny it, choosing instead to attack Goldberg. It is obviously unconvincing to claim the ‘transparency’ narrative here. If this were a matter of gross incompetence, the Administration would only admit it to provide cover for firing those responsible. But there will be no firings for this incident. That suggests that it was, in fact, an exquisite hoax. After all, Vance swiftly and convincingly denied another supposed leak yesterday as soon as it came out, ending any further speculation. Surely, this admission must suggest that this was a deliberate leak?
Fateful Fallout
Lastly, the results can suggest how likely this is to be a hoax.
America First
The most obvious upside is that the messages have rallied Trump’s ‘America First’ base. But there is no upcoming election. Trump has sky-high approval ratings. The Democrats are publicly disintegrating and show no signs of recovery before the mid-terms. These facts alone do more to rally the base than an elaborate plan involving public humiliation.
Europe Last
Europe is under serious pressure going into peace talks with Ukraine and Russia. This is true. Yet that was already the case before the article broke yesterday. Europe publicly acknowledged its need to re-arm and its reliance on the US within 48 hours of the Zelensky fight last month. Seeing Vance say mean things about Europe in private does not deliver any message different to his public comments for his entire political career thus far.
Signal of incompetence
On balance, it seems more likely than not that this is gross incompetence, not 4D chess. If that is the case, then heads must roll. This particular incident may not have had negative consequences, but the next one might.
Yet there are still too many unanswered questions to be certain. We must wait for more information to come out, knowing that we may never know all the details. I would love to be a fly on the wall – or a Goldberg in the Signal chat – as they discuss the fallout internally.
