The Democrats are flailing. With a unified minority, the party is struggling to keep up after the failed Harris-Walz candidacy. But if the party has any chance of survival, it must start screening candidates now. A recent Survey USA poll found Kamala Harris to be the clear frontrunner in the next Democrat primary. But her candidacy is unlikely to compete with the strong GOP bench. With three years to go until the first Democrat primary, let’s look at which candidate will have the best shot.
Kamala Harris
With a clear lead of 37% favorability, Harris would likely win a Democrat primary if it were in 2025. Amid such hatred for the Trump administration within the Democrat party, her candidacy would be an obstinate rejection of the sitting president. However, with JD Vance, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy being the likely frontrunners for the GOP nomination, Harris is unlikely to stand a chance with an electorate that roundly rejected her four months ago. Rumors about her candidacy in next year’s gubernatorial race in California are likely more realistic. Even as California moderates, it is still overwhelmingly left-wing and supports Harris. So long as Harris is content to step down from Vice President to Governor, she would have a strong shot at winning. It would be quite unlikely that she could run in 2028, though, immediately after a 2026 Governor race. For the sake of her career and her party, her 2028 candidacy is ill-advised.
Pete Buttigieg
“Mayor Pete” Buttigieg has a strong profile. He masterfully flipped his low-level mayoral office into a national profile with a 2020 presidential candidacy. Ultimately, he became the Secretary of Transportation during Biden’s presidency and has continued to boost his profile in national media since leaving office in January. His profile – no doubt aided by his series of ‘firsts’ as an openly gay man – makes him quite popular within the party. Characterized by a stratospheric rise – rather than a major loss – separates confidence in his candidacy from Harris. Similar to Harris, however, his father was a translator of the works of Gramsci, leaving little doubt about his political background. Both Harris and Buttigieg have promoted such far-left views throughout their career. This makes it unlikely that Buttigieg’s candidacy would be successful in a post-Trump America.
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom is both the biggest advantage and the biggest liability of the Democrat party. A number of scandals during the covid lockdowns threatened his political future. However, his deft communications strategy has kept him as a major contender for the Democrat candidacy throughout his Governorship of California. A serial entrepreneur prior to entering politics, Newsom is evidently a strategic operator. He recently launched a podcast with the clear purpose of moderating his image. In the first episode – a conversation with conservative activist Charlie Kirk – he rolled back on the gender policies he had supported. He acknowledged the holes in the party’s strategy and appears to be the only potential candidate willing to moderate ahead of the next election.
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is a firebrand in the House of Representatives. Leader of ‘The Squad’ – a group of far-left young disciples of Bernie Sanders, her candidacy has been touted since she entered politics in 2018, despite being too young to run. A number of Squad members lost their seats last year and Jasmine Crockett has taken over as the member constantly in the media. However, AOC has effectively established her brand over the last six years and would easily be a frontrunner for the party nomination. Her extreme views, however, may harm her candidacy. Like Harris and Buttigieg, she would struggle to appeal to the center, especially in a post-Trump race.
Tim Walz
Although he did not featur in the Survey USA poll, Tim Walz is actively campaigning for a 2028 candidacy. He has turned down the prospect of a 2026 Senate run and has booked an event tour of Republican states. Plucked from relative obscurity last July by Kamala Harris, he has the advantage of being pre-vetted by the public. Granted, he was vetted in a spectacularly underwhelming candidacy, but it may still be an advantage in the primaries. His left-wing bona fides are certain and he has four years to mould his national profile. It is not unreasonable to suggest that his preparations would include improved messaging and repeated debate practice ahead of a potential rematch with JD Vance. During his previous career as a House Representative – and in his first gubernatorial term – Walz positioned his candidacy as a moderate. It would be no surprise if he shifted back in that direction again ahead of his next run.
2028 Candidacy
As the party struggles to find its direction, there are plenty of potentials trying out for the party’s candidacy in 2028. With the overwhelming shift away from moderation within the party, there are no actual moderates left. They joined the MAGA coalition with Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr last year. However, Gavin Newsom or Tim Walz posts-rebrand could have a real shot at challenging the MAGA successors. Each of them has the record to gather the party behind their candidacy, with two terms of executive experience each. It’s the best chance the party has, if they are willing to take it.
