As Aontú launched its manifesto yesterday, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin counter-signalled the event. In a podcast with The Irish Examiner, Martin ruled out the possibility of a coalition with Aontú. Leader Peadar Toibín made a dig at the debate on Monday about Fianna Fáil being a “hollow husk of a party”. He cited that as a reason to go into government with the party. X lit up. Aontú supporters shared clippings from 2020 where Martin said the same about a coalition with Fine Gael. This no doubt aggravates what Toibín called Martin’s “bruised ego”.
But don’t be mistaken, this is no mere playground-style hair pulling. Toibín’s party leadership skill has yet to be proven, but he is a shrewd and strategic politician. There is definitely more to this than meets the eye.
Aontú Attack
Aontú has been rapidly growing since its founding in 2019. Its impressive ground game hasn’t been matched by polling or electoral success, though. The party has consistently got 3% in the polls since 2021 and it got a fairly unimpressive 8 councillors elected in June. Add that to zero seats in the EU elections when they had a safe one in Toibín and a stretch one in Patrick Murph and its failure to keep any seats in the North, and Aontú needs this election to go well to avoid fading into obscurity. Aontú needs momentum and space to keep growing ahead of the 2029 election.
But the key here is to strike the balance. A painful reality of life that many of us have come to realise is that politicians are not always entirely honest with their base. Shocking, I know.
A Fine-Balance Strategy
To increase turnout, it’s essential for Aontú to convince its potential voters that the party is a credible vote for an alternative government. To hold back on any commitments is essential to save face when Toibín inevitably pulls out of coalition talks after 36 hours – if he ever gets into the room in the first place. It’s heartening to see Aontú finally strike this balance effectively. Only six months ago, Toibín sank his EU Parliament campaign because he was unable to balance the internal and the external messages. The external message at the time was that Toibín, a well-known face in the Midlands-Northwest constituency was a shoe-in for Europe, polling for the fifth seat in the five-seat constituency.
The internal message was that by co-opting his sister, Emer, into Brussels once the next Dáil election came around, the party would keep its seat in Meath-West with Peadar while expanding into Brussels with Emer. Toibín made the fatal mistake of letting the internal slip into the external. He landed eighth in the race with egg on his face and a big question mark over his integrity. This time round, he’s doing a much better job. He keeps up the pretence that he’s open to sitting in government, while forcing his opponents to keep him on the outside.
Picking the fight
And how is he doing this? By insulting potential partners, of course. It would be too obvious if Toibín ruled out all of the main three parties. By shutting out Sinn Féin, it makes him look like he’s intent on maintaining the status quo. By remaining open to all three parties, he looks like he’s not as intent on holding the parties to account at all. Instead, he has ruled out Fine Gael – holding Harris to account – while remaining open to Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin. The kicker is that in doing so, he insults the parties and their leaders so much that it would take some serious humility for either of them to consider talks with Aontú. Politicians, obviously, are not famous for their humility.
It’s a win-win for Aontú. It tells its voters that it’s a credible government party. It holds the current government to account by ruling out Fine Gael. It stabs the other two main parties in the back as – to quote Toibín – “hollow husks” with no principles. It lets Aontú save face for avoiding the next government while making Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil look incredibly vindictive.
Oh and, of course, Peadar Toibín’s favourite thing: he gets more airtime in the process!
