In a characteristically delayed approach to the new year, the new Irish Government will finally begin next week. After weeks of fairly uneventful negotiations in Dublin, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael announced a new ‘Programme for Government’ along with confirmation of a 95-seat majority with a number of Independent TDs. It is generally an uninspiring plan to continue the trend of two ostensibly rivalled parties working together. The only headline issues are that Fianna Fáil is finally in charge of proceedings and that the Healy-Rae brothers will be facing the opposite gallery in the Dáil chamber. Amongst the banality, however, there are important lessons in the results of this process. These are informative as to the strategic approach of this government to both domestic and international affairs. The outlook is not particularly good for Ireland.
The Government Coalition
The biggest strategic error of the deal is the rotating Taoiseach provision. Fianna Fáil stormed the election in November with a ten-seat advantage. The strategic thing for Micheál Martin to do would have been to step back and let Fine Gael and Sinn Féin outbid each other for the coalition seat. Desperate to be in government at last, Mary Lou McDonald would have gone at least a few rounds with the outgoing Taoiseach, significantly undermining his bargaining power. It would have been nearly impossible for anyone to form a sustainable government without Fianna Fáil, so playing hard ball was a fairly obvious strategy with little downside. Alas, Irish politicians are not known for adopting obvious, beneficial strategies.
The new program for Government
A brief scan of the 162-page ‘Programme for Government’ returns a couple of points of concern, at least from a strategic point of view, mostly in terms of foreign policy. Specifically, the approach of the new Government towards the US, the Middle East, and Northern Ireland is noteworthy.
Northern Ireland
On a positive note, the approach to the North appears strategically well-thought out. Without proposing anything new, the incoming government will continue to, in effect, lay the groundwork for eventual reunification of the island.
The roll-out of cross-border services and a focus on improving Anglo-Irish relations post-Brexit will push The Troubles further into the history books. Maintaining silence on a border poll – contra to Sinn Féin’s incessant bloviation on the topic – is key to achieving that soft re-unification. The other two areas of note in the Government’s foreign policy objectives, however, are cause for less excitement.
The United States
Released five days before the second inauguration of Donald Trump as US President, the government plan makes no promises to change its approach to Washington. There have been numerous mainstream calls since November for the Government to shore up its wild deficiencies in Team Trump. The only commitment is a slight increase of diplomatic presence in southern states. Unless that’s a veiled reference to a secret new consulate on the grounds of Mar-a-Lago, it’s unlikely that this strategy will bear any fruit. Diplomatic presence in red states does not necessarily lead to amiability in the united government in Washington DC.
The US policies are, to say the least, a little strange. There is emphasis in the government plan for increasing Irish investment into the US, but no reciprocal policy listed. It is, of course, a major weakness of the Irish economy to rely so heavily on US investment in Ireland. But to focus entirely on pushing money out of the country would likely exacerbate the problem. Shoring up the trade gap, if that is the purpose of the policy, is neither a benefit to Ireland nor likely to deflect Howard Lutnick’s crosshairs.
Ireland’s key aim in DC, according to the Government, is advocacy on Capitol Hill for undocumented Irish citizens. Yes, that is correct. Days before the inauguration of a man whose key political point for a decade is to deport illegal immigrants, the Irish Government announced plans to side with people who overstay their 90 day work visas. A shrewd move, this is not.
Finally, the government is intent on increasing the diaspora in the US. This policy has been exceptionally effective for centuries. In fact, the Government’s approach has been scaled into Australia in recent years, bearing great fruit. The purpose of the Government in this regard, however, is supposed to be identifying and tackling the causes of mass-emigration. Its new focus on building more houses and recruiting more police would surely render the diaspora growth less likely.
The Middle East
As previously discussed, the main concerns for the Government in relation to the US is its stance – or rather, belligerence – on the Middle East. This policy will continue under the new Government. Despite hesitation in the last Government and the recent semi-disavowal by MEP Regina Doherty, the Government will pass the Occupied Territories Bill. It will also continue to lobby to re-define the term ‘genocide’ in order to find Israel guilty of it. This has already caused Israel to close its Irish embassy. The strategic move would, obviously, be to solve problems closer to home.
UNRWA
Ireland will also continue to fund the UNRWA. Ireland could at least feign neutrality by pretending to investigate the widespread allegations that UNRWA is run by Hamas. The appearance of ensuring that humanitarian aid is not funding terrorism training would surely give some credence to the Government internationally. Of course, actually pursuing the investigation and disproving the allegations would help the Palestinian cause in a meaningful way too.
Independents and Fine Gael won this negotiation. Fianna Fáil and Irish diplomacy lost. It is too late to change the approach to government formation but Ireland still has a chance to change course internationally. In lieu of increasing the number of Irish ex-pats in the US, it could reach out to the many well-connected Irish citizens in the Republican orbit and rekindle the love that America has for its motherland. It may prove key to achieving the economic objectives of this Government.
